The importance for a town in understanding its own winning recipe

The economic environment remains challenging. Rising employer costs—driven by increases in the national living wage and higher national insurance contributions—appear to have contributed to higher unemployment, now comparable to levels seen during Covid in 2021 and in double digits among the youngest workers. As a result, consumer confidence remains low, and households continue to save at elevated levels to protect against rising prices and potential job losses. 

Early 2026 brought households some stability in inflation and interest rates. However, the outbreak of war in the Middle East may feed into higher inflation and interest rates in coming months, due to increased energy prices. although this remains uncertain as it is still very early in the piece. 

A frequent question is whether a town’s sales profile influences its resilience. The sales results during January and February 2026 offer useful indicators but not definitive conclusions, painting quite a nuanced picture. However, two patterns are clear nationally: five sectors—Fashion, Food & Drink, General Retail, Grocery, and Health & Beauty—account for around 85% of all sales, and Food & Drink now surpasses Fashion in contribution.  

Across GB during January sales declined by just -0.7%. Among the towns where sales increased during January 2026, Fashion represented a slightly smaller share than the national average (16% of total sales compared to a 20% share across the benchmark as a whole). Food & Drink was broadly in line with GB levels, and Health & Beauty contributed slightly more (12% of sales vs 10% for the GB benchmark). Notably, Fashion exceeded Food & Drink in only 14% of these towns. 

Yet these are averages, and individual towns often diverge substantially. The data also shows that strong performance does not depend on any single sales pattern. Middlesbrough, Bradford, and Worthing illustrate this clearly, each achieving growth during January 2026 despite very different sector contributions:

• Middlesbrough: +7.1% sales growth; 20% Fashion, 41% Food & Drink, 11% Grocery
• Bradford: +5.9% sales growth; 26% Fashion, 22% Food & Drink, 18% Grocery
• Worthing: +4.7% sales growth; 8% Fashion, 23% Food & Drink, 38% Grocery

These differences highlight that no universal formula drives success, with each town’s performance reflecting its own distinct mix or recipe of sector strengths. The key question for any location is that an individual town understands and exploits its own winning recipe.